AUSTRALIANS are piling their toast, plates and smoothies with avocados as oversupply has made the once-luxury item now one of the best value options on fruit and vegetable stands.
However, the growth in domestic consumption won't be enough to keep growers afloat with even more production due to come onto the market over the next three years so industry leaders are pouring resources into accessing and targetting overseas markets.
Rabobank data shows the average volume of avocados consumed by each Australian household this past financial year increased 31.2 per cent on the previous year, as retail prices plummeted to as little as $1 each.
Household penetration now sits at between 75 and 80 per cent, industry organisation Avocados Australia reported.
Rabobank says retail prices for 2022 are tracking at 47 per cent below the five-year average.
Avocados Australia chief executive officer John Tyas said domestic consumption would have to lift even further, and come with a significant increase in exports, to allow growers to remain viable.
"Coupled with increasing costs for fertiliser, fuel, labour and freight, the very low returns have made it extremely tough going for growers," he said.
NSW producer Tom Silver, Laurel Park at Alstonville, said for some growers returns are so far below the cost of production they will not even meet harvest costs this year.
Avolanche
In a special report called The Avolanche of Australian Avocados, Rabobank said a significant maturing of trees in the past season, primarily in Western Australia and Queensland, had resulted in a bumper crop, causing a national oversupply.
RaboResearch associate analyst Pia Piggott said the WA crop had been a turning point, with estimates putting the state's production up a staggering 265 per cent on the previous year.
"This was driven by a 21 per cent increase in the hectares of avocado trees in WA that reached maturity and produced fruit in this season, coupled with optimal growing conditions in the state," she said.
All other Australian avocado-growing regions, except North Queensland which had already seen a record harvest the previous year, have also seen year-on-year increases in production in 2022, according to Rabobank.
And it's just the beginning.
Mr Tyas said industry forecasts were that the peak would not be reached until 2026 when production would be 170,000t, double what was produced in 2021.
"And that is assuming people stop planting. The past three years has seen the amount of new plantings rapidly decline," he said.
IN OTHER NEWS:
Industry leaders do think there is still room for consumption growth domestically.
"Traditionally, we've found a barrier to increasing consumption has been price and now avocados are such good value, we are seeing rapid growth and new households coming into the category which we will work hard to keep," Mr Tyas said.
Ms Piggot agrees.
"Avocados have a strong health halo and are price competitive amid the broader cost of living pressures and this has supported Australian domestic demand," she said.
Exports
But industry eyes are also very much on exports.
"In the past there has been a reluctance to supply export markets when domestic prices have been so good but that has changed now," Mr Silver said.
"The industry has been working on growing export markets for many years, knowing increased supply was coming."
Mr Tyas said access to new markets had been gained - WA product into Japan in 2018 and a protocol with India was currently underway.
The Rabobank report said Australian export volumes of avocados had increased by more than 350 per cent cent in the past year.
"The Singapore and Hong Kong markets have been stand-out performers, with Australia growing to account for 46 per cent and 12 per cent market share of their avocado imports, respectively," Ms Piggott said.
"Malaysia has re-bounded from COVID-related impacts, with Australian exports now making up 46 per cent of their total imported avocados.
"Exports to the rest of the world are also up, including to the Middle East and Japan."
The rise of avocado consumption in Asia - as a growing middle class embraces the health aspects of the fruit - presents an ongoing opportunity for exporters worldwide, the Rabobank report says.
But competition is also on the rise from other exporters, such as Mexico and South America.